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Generative AI demand explodes, and HBM and DDR5 shipments will increase in 2024
The demand for generative AI has exploded, and global DRAM manufacturers are all optimistic about the growth momentum of high bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5 shipments next year. These two products are one of the few product lines in the current industry that remain above average.
According to industry analysts, due to the rise of generative AI, HBM has become a popular Crispy fried chicken of semiconductor chips besides GPU chips, especially the 3D stack architecture of the rear section of HBM, which has limited the growth rate of supply, and the pressure of supply exceeding demand is gradually emerging. In addition, the PC industry is brewing to bring AI hardware into PC design, and the market expects various AI PC devices to be launched in 2024, such as pure edge or hybrid cloud, edge AI devices, etc.
Although the supply chain has not yet fully defined AI PC, upgrading the specifications of components will be an inevitable trend. Due to the significant increase in data processing capacity driven by AI PC, high-speed transmission chips must be upgraded simultaneously, such as upgrading Thunderbolt 3 to Thunderbolt 4/5, upgrading USB 3 to USB 4, and upgrading the transmission interface from PCIe 3.0 to PCIe 4.0/5.0; Therefore, upgrading the DRAM specification from DDR4 to DDR5 will be a necessary choice.
The industry pointed out that since HBM and DDR5 are the best profit combinations among all products, major storage chip manufacturers will focus on capital expenditure next year, with a focus on 1 α Or 1 β The improvement of nano wafer size and 3D packaging equipment.
Market research institutions estimate that among all global DRAM process outputs (particle count), 1 α Or 1 β The proportion of nano processing will reach 47.6% by the fourth quarter of 2024, and it is expected to exceed 50% by 2025.
Under the trend of generative AI demand, the global HBM output value is estimated to increase from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $5.2 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.3%.
According to industry analysts, due to the rise of generative AI, HBM has become a popular Crispy fried chicken of semiconductor chips besides GPU chips, especially the 3D stack architecture of the rear section of HBM, which has limited the growth rate of supply, and the pressure of supply exceeding demand is gradually emerging. In addition, the PC industry is brewing to bring AI hardware into PC design, and the market expects various AI PC devices to be launched in 2024, such as pure edge or hybrid cloud, edge AI devices, etc.
Although the supply chain has not yet fully defined AI PC, upgrading the specifications of components will be an inevitable trend. Due to the significant increase in data processing capacity driven by AI PC, high-speed transmission chips must be upgraded simultaneously, such as upgrading Thunderbolt 3 to Thunderbolt 4/5, upgrading USB 3 to USB 4, and upgrading the transmission interface from PCIe 3.0 to PCIe 4.0/5.0; Therefore, upgrading the DRAM specification from DDR4 to DDR5 will be a necessary choice.
The industry pointed out that since HBM and DDR5 are the best profit combinations among all products, major storage chip manufacturers will focus on capital expenditure next year, with a focus on 1 α Or 1 β The improvement of nano wafer size and 3D packaging equipment.
Market research institutions estimate that among all global DRAM process outputs (particle count), 1 α Or 1 β The proportion of nano processing will reach 47.6% by the fourth quarter of 2024, and it is expected to exceed 50% by 2025.
Under the trend of generative AI demand, the global HBM output value is estimated to increase from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $5.2 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.3%.